Growth of the Area Near Tatum Ranch

Cave Creek's population is growing slowly, and that is the point

Census-based estimates put Cave Creek's population at roughly 5,100 to 5,700 residents in the mid-2020s, up modestly from about 4,900 to 4,930 at the 2020 Census. That is a small annual increase, well behind the growth rates of many Phoenix suburbs. Cave Creek has stayed a town of custom and semi-custom homes rather than large subdivisions, and the town's own planning department has pursued open space preservation, including an initiative to permanently protect roughly 4,005 acres of surrounding desert, specifically to keep that character intact as the region around it grows.

• 2020 Census baseline: approximately 4,890 to 4,930 residents
• Mid-2020s estimates range from about 5,100 to 5,700 residents depending on the data source
• Cave Creek has pursued a 4,005-acre open space preservation effort rather than large-scale annexation or subdivision growth

Source: U.S. Census Bureau ACS and Population Estimates Program; Town of Cave Creek open space initiative (cavecreekaz.gov)

The real growth engine: TSMC and the North Valley job corridor

The biggest driver of change near Tatum Ranch is not happening inside Cave Creek, it is happening a short drive south. TSMC's Phoenix campus began high-volume production at its first fab in late 2024 and early 2025, completed the structure of a second fab in 2025 with production targeted for the second half of 2027, and broke ground on a third fab in April 2025. Together the three fabs are projected to support around 6,000 direct high-tech jobs, plus tens of thousands of construction and supplier positions during the build-out. Deer Valley Airport, a few miles further south, has been expanding alongside that growth, with its fixed-base operator approved in 2025 to add a second large hangar and a private aviation operator opening a new hangar campus there in early 2026.

• TSMC Fab 1: high-volume production underway as of late 2024 into 2025
• TSMC Fab 2: structure completed 2025, production targeted for second half of 2027
• TSMC Fab 3: groundbreaking April 2025
• Projected roughly 6,000 direct high-tech jobs across the three fabs, plus construction and supplier employment
• Deer Valley Airport: second large hangar approved 2025; new private aviation hangar campus opened early 2026

Source: TSMC Arizona (tsmc.com); Office of the Arizona Governor; yourvalley.net Deer Valley Airport reporting

What is actually changing close to Tatum Ranch

Most of the visible change close to home is small and incremental rather than sweeping. A rezoning request is scheduled for a Phoenix Planning Commission hearing in January 2026 for an 8.34-acre site at Cave Creek Road and Desert Willow Parkway, inside the Tatum Ranch Planned Community District, to allow a small commercial center with a billiards hall inside an existing restaurant space. A few miles south, near Desert Ridge Marketplace at Deer Valley Drive and Tatum Boulevard, a roughly 41-acre site is in the early planning stages for an 882-unit multifamily project. Neither is a large subdivision; both are the kind of infill and reuse projects typical of an area that is mostly built out.

• Tatum Ranch PCD rezoning at Cave Creek Road and Desert Willow Parkway: small commercial/billiards use, Phoenix Planning Commission hearing scheduled January 2026
• Garden Communities site near Desert Ridge Marketplace (Deer Valley Drive and Tatum Boulevard): early-stage plans for an 882-unit multifamily project on about 41 acres

Source: City of Phoenix Planning and Development staff report Z-237-M-85-2; AZBEX reporting

Infrastructure catching up to the job growth

Road projects in the pipeline are aimed at the traffic that job growth brings, not at opening new land for subdivisions. The Arizona Department of Transportation has a $129 million project underway improving the I-17 and Loop 303 interchange in north Phoenix, adding direct ramps and widening lanes, with construction beginning in late January 2026. Further west, ADOT construction on a new Loop 303 segment between MC 85 and Van Buren was scheduled to start in mid-2026. Together with Loop 101, these projects are meant to keep commutes manageable as the North Valley's employment base keeps expanding.

• I-17 / Loop 303 interchange improvements: $129 million ADOT project, construction beginning late January 2026
• Loop 303 (MC 85 to Van Buren) new segment: ADOT construction scheduled mid-2026

Source: Arizona Department of Transportation (azdot.gov)

Schools: a more complicated picture than 'growth'

It would be easy to assume schools are bursting at the seams here, but the honest local picture is mixed. Cave Creek Unified School District has seen enrollment decline in recent years and has been studying school consolidations through a Facilities Focus Group, with a 2023-24 demographic study projecting continued decline through the early 2030s. Deer Valley Unified School District, which serves the broader area to the south and west, has also reported declining district-wide enrollment even while it plans a new high school by 2029 and a new K-8 school by 2032 to serve growth in specific parts of its boundary, alongside boundary adjustments to balance enrollment across existing campuses.

• Cave Creek Unified School District (CCUSD 93): enrollment has been declining; consolidation study underway
• Deer Valley Unified School District (DVUSD): district-wide enrollment declining overall, but new high school (by 2029) and K-8 school (by 2032) planned for growth areas within the district

Source: CCUSD93 Facilities Focus Group and demographic study; DVUSD Long Range Planning Committee

The bigger picture: Maricopa County keeps adding people

Zoom out to the county level and the growth is real and large in absolute terms, even if Cave Creek itself stays quiet. Maricopa County ranked third among all U.S. counties for numeric population growth between July 2024 and July 2025, adding 35,411 residents to reach an estimated 4,689,558, according to U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates. That growth is concentrated in the county's fast-building suburbs and employment corridors, and it is a large part of why the North Valley job and infrastructure story above keeps moving.

• Maricopa County ranked #3 nationally in numeric population growth, July 2024 to July 2025
• Added an estimated 35,411 residents in that period, reaching about 4,689,558 total

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 County Population Estimates (census.gov)

Is Cave Creek and Tatum Ranch a fast-growing area?

The town of Cave Creek itself is not. Population estimates show slow, modest growth of a few percent over several years, well behind many Phoenix suburbs, and the town has actively pursued open space preservation to keep its character. The fast growth is happening a few miles south, in the broader North Valley job and infrastructure corridor.

What is driving growth in the wider North Phoenix area?

The largest driver is TSMC's semiconductor campus, which is building three fabrication plants projected to support around 6,000 direct high-tech jobs plus tens of thousands of construction and supplier positions. Deer Valley Airport's expansion and North Valley road projects on Loop 101, Loop 303, and I-17 are following that job growth.

Are new subdivisions being built inside Tatum Ranch?

No large new subdivisions are being added inside the existing Tatum Ranch community; it is largely built out. The change happening nearby is small-scale, such as a proposed rezoning for a small commercial space at Cave Creek Road and Desert Willow Parkway and multifamily development near Desert Ridge Marketplace several miles to the south.

Are local schools growing to keep up with new residents?

It is more complicated than that. Both Cave Creek Unified School District and Deer Valley Unified School District have reported overall enrollment declines in recent years. Deer Valley is still planning a new high school and a new K-8 school for specific growth areas within its larger boundary, while Cave Creek has been studying consolidation of existing schools.